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Very few reading this would have ever heard of Ibn Khaldun before this post but his theory on the rise and fall of empires still rings true today.
Now that the dust has pretty much settled on the political scene in Zimbabwe with President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-pf party getting into power there has been time to reflect on what has actually happened.
Many theories have been proffered by a litany of ‘experts’ or ‘analysts’ as our beloved Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation would call them.
One that has constantly been missed is the ignored transformation of Zanu-pf as a party.
Ibn Khaldun, a 14th Century philosopher preached about the rhythmic rise and fall of dynasties.
Nomads, he argued, always have more courage, moral servitude and social cohesion than settled, civilised societies so every once in a while they will sweep in and conquer lands whose rulers have become corrupt and complacent. They create a new dynasty — and, over time, become corrupt and complacent themselves, ready to be overrun by a new set of barbarians.
While the Islamic scholar said that it took all of 120 years for this to take place it took a shorter time in Zimbabwe.
The ‘nomads’ who unchained the country from colonialism with the people in 1980, became lazy and complacent by the late 90s. They had created a ‘civilised society’ whose demands meant that there would be the corruption and complacency in the system.
A new nomad – MDC – rode into town and the dynasty seemed endangered much the same way that similar dynasties of a similar nature in other parts of Africa.
Then something happened. Instead of defending its position, the establishment started evolving. There was a shock to the system and Zanu-pf responded and changed. The change was not unfamiliar. It returned to its revolutionary value system.
Said Kaldun of nomads:
Nomads are rough, savage and uncultured, and their presence is always inimical to civilization; however, they are hardy, frugal, uncorrupt in morals, freedom-loving and self-reliant, and so make excellent fighters. In addition, they have a strong sense of ‘asabiya, which can be translated as ‘group cohesion’ or ‘social solidarity’.
The existence of sanctions made this true for Zanu-pf as it had to get into freedom-loving, self-reliant, fighters mode. The group cohesion particularly in the last 5 years was clear. Their goal was one – to get back into power.
Aspiring candidates campaigned on the ground for years before elections and became known in the areas they wanted to serve.
Meanwhile, MDC-T so desperate to become the establishment took on the mantra of those they opposed before and became lazy and complacent assuming the people would vote for them no matter what happened.
Except that, the Zanu-pf being voted for this time was not the same as that of 2008 and was only remotely related to that of 2000. It had evolved and filled its ranks with a lot of new blood with new ideas. So on the surface it appeared the same because the top positions seemed to have the same people but cells and districts were re-energised.
They switched play in one way that many did not expect. They realised that violence was no longer effective, so the strategists got back to work and developed a new way to win elections.
Meanwhile the MDC-T remained the same, calling on its change mantra of 1999 to take them past the post. The change mantra is 14 years old by the way.
Whatever the allegations of vote rigging and the works, Zanu-pf changed itself from within. Ironic that MDC-T calls for change and it is Zanu-Pf that does the changing.
Kaldum said:
There is rhythm in the rise and fall of dynasties.
We add:
Only one which reinvents itself and its relevance survives.
Zanu-pf has managed to reinvent itself and its relevance and survived but can it keep away from being complacent and retain its supporters?
With information from MuslimPhilosophy.com
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